ITAÚ: 2016 Outlook: And the Chickens Come Home to Roost

The tough choices that were not taken in 2015 come home to roost in 2016. These include: the implications of the Fed’s decision to  tighten; China’s decision to fully take on SOE reform; and sovereign/corporate decision making in the commodity complex. Perhaps most important is SOE reform in China - the context for the latest decision to increase stimulus. The key takeaway for the global economy: all three of these decisions are negative for growth and inflation and moreover all three reinforce each other. The big surprise for 2016: a period of USD weakness which will lead to a sharp counter trend rally in all the assets punished in the past few months: commodities, EM equity, US high yield. What the world needs now is a weak dollar and it will get it - at least for a little while. Cross asset allocations discussed inside include the sighting of a rare twofer.

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